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Project Management & Agile · Intermediate

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Estimating and scheduling technique using weighted average durations (O + 4M + P) / 6.

Definition

Developed for the US Navy Polaris program in the 1950s, PERT uses a beta distribution to account for uncertainty. It is often paired with standard deviation to estimate confidence intervals.

Example

O=2, M=5, P=14 weeks gives a PERT estimate of 6 weeks.

Exam tip

PERT formula weights most likely by 4; standard deviation is (P - O) / 6.

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