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Project Management & Agile · Intermediate

Cone of Uncertainty

Concept that estimate uncertainty is greatest early in a project and narrows as information is gained.

Definition

Popularized by Barry Boehm and Steve McConnell, early estimates may vary by a factor of four in either direction.

Example

Initial estimates range widely; after design they converge within plus or minus 25%.

Exam tip

Justifies progressive elaboration and rolling wave planning.

Related terms