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Governance, Risk, Audit & Privacy · Foundational

Likelihood

The chance or probability that a risk event will occur within a time frame.

Definition

Likelihood may be expressed qualitatively (rare to almost certain), as a frequency (ARO), or as a probability. It considers threat capability and intent, vulnerability, and existing controls. Likelihood combined with impact determines risk level.

Example

Credential stuffing against an internet portal without MFA is rated almost certain.

Exam tip

When a control reduces how often something happens, it reduces likelihood, not impact.

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